RX2 Solutions Q4 2023 Hiring & Economic Outlook

Q4 looks like it will be similar to Q2 and Q3 with no dramatic changes. With the end of Summer and the start of budget season, we have seen the demand for hiring increase across all of our lines of business.

More and more economists, including those at Bank of America, believe there will either be a soft landing or a minor recessionⁱ.

Interest rates have increased half a point since May, which demonstrates a slowdown of rate increases. With three meetings remaining in 2023, the Fed has hinted that they may raise rates again, but they may not need to or want to if inflation continues to coolⁱⁱ.

The unemployment rate rose .3% to 3.8% and is still considered better than the full employment rate of 4.0%. There were an additional 514,000 people who became unemployed in August, however there were also an additional 740,000 people who entered or re-entered the workforce so there were around 200,000 new jobs created even though unemployment went upⁱⁱⁱ.

Inflation rose .6% in August and 3.7% year over year with transportation costs such as fuel and airfare being major factors for the increase^iv. While 3.7% is better than where we were towards the middle of the Pandemic, its still significantly above the Fed’s 2% target which may lead to future rate increases in the near term.

In Q4, holiday spending is always a big economic factor and according to Bain Capital, it looks like we will have one of the slowest holiday shopping seasons of the past 10 years with the main factor for this being inflation increasing everyday costs^v. A slowdown in consumer spending may be a positive as it may lead to inflation continuing to drop.

We see the economy remaining strong through the remainder of 2023 and into 2024 with strong demand for labor combined with full employment. If you’d like to discuss your hiring strategy with RX2 Solutions and how we can play a part in it, feel free to reach out – info@rx2solutions.com, 610.340.3490.